Works in Progress

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  • ​"The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model" (with Enrique Martinez-Garcia, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Under Review)​. Click here
    • ​​Video presentation of the paper, Ft. Lauderdale (FL), 2019. Click here
    • Video presentation of the paper, World Congress of the Econometric Society. Click here

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  • ​ "Heterogeneity in Individual Expectations, Optimism/Pessimism, and Constant-Gain  Learning" (with Fabio Milani, UC Irvine; Under Review). Click here

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  • "Rearming Monetary Policy: A DSGE-VAR Evaluation of Recent Central Bank Action", 2012

​​Working Papers

  • "The Heterogeneous Effects of Forward Guidance Under Imperfect Central Bank Credibility Across the U.S., U.K., Japan, and Euro Area" (with Enrique Martinez-Garica, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
    • ​Video presentation of the paper, Southern Economic Association 90th Annual Meeting. Click here

My Resume

Stephen J. Cole

​​Published/Forthcoming


  • "The Limits of Central Bank Forward Guidance under Learning," ​International Journal of Central Banking,16(4), 2020: 199-250. Click here

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  • "The Influence of Learning and Price-Level Targeting on Central Bank Forward Guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, 65, 2020. Click here

  • "The Misspecification of Expectations in New Keynesian Models: A DSGE-VAR Approach" (with Fabio Milani, UC Irvine), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(3), 2019: 974-1007. Click here


  • "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance under Inflation and Price-Level targeting," Journal of Macroeconomics, 55, 2018:146-161. Click here

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