​​Working Papers

  • “Forward Guidance, Indeterminacy, and the Zero Lower Bound” (with Ren Zhang, Texas​State University).
  • ​"Measuring the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools under Adaptive Learning” (with Sungjun Huh, Konkuk University). Journal of  Economic Dynamics and Control, ​164, 2024. Click here
    • ​Working Paper Version (October 2023), click here.

  • ​​​​​​"Forward Guidance Effectiveness in a New Keynesian Model with Housing Frictions" (with Sungjun Huh, Konkuk University). The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, ​23(1), 2023: 551-590. Click here

  • ​"The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model" (with Enrique Martinez-Garcia, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), Macroeconomic Dynamics, ​2021: 1-39. Click here
    • Working paper version, click here
    • Video presentation of the paper, Ft. Lauderdale (FL), 2019. Click here
    • Video presentation of the paper, World Congress of the Econometric Society. Click here

  • ​"Heterogeneity in Individual Expectations, Optimism/Pessimism, and Constant-Gain  Learning" (with Fabio Milani, UC Irvine), Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, ​188, 2021: 627-650. Click here

  • ​"Learning and the Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance," ​Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, ​53(1), 2021: 157-200. Click here 

  • "The Limits of Central Bank Forward Guidance under Learning," ​International Journal of Central Banking,16(4), 2020: 199-250. Click here

  • "The Influence of Learning and Price-Level Targeting on Central Bank Forward Guidance," Journal of Macroeconomics, 65, 2020. Click here

  • "The Misspecification of Expectations in New Keynesian Models: A DSGE-VAR Approach" (with Fabio Milani, UC Irvine), Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(3), 2019: 974-1007. Click here

  • "The Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance under Inflation and Price-Level targeting," Journal of Macroeconomics, 55, 2018:146-161. Click here


Stephen J. Cole

My Resume

Works in Progress




  • ​"Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis" (with Enrique Martinez-Garica, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Eric Sims, University of Notre Dame). Click here

  • "Rearming Monetary Policy: A DSGE-VAR Evaluation of Recent Central Bank Action", 2012